Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 23.886665 26.039895 28.371619 31.096775 34.210330 37.675777 41.851367
2025-12-14 20.511968 23.435397 26.825836 31.097468 36.406962 42.887826 51.555450
2025-12-21 18.675192 22.172375 26.467183 32.243599 39.995481 50.331171 65.700863
2025-12-28 16.723698 20.433184 25.191017 31.926930 41.549571 55.383723 78.024232
2026-01-04 15.317807 19.171578 24.300608 31.895069 43.374395 61.089264 92.969477
2026-01-11 14.305658 18.288790 23.767635 32.219304 45.691543 67.972472 112.195127
2026-01-18 13.297602 17.291206 22.932794 31.934883 46.945699 73.327163 130.649926
2026-01-25 12.482342 16.478513 22.260540 31.776738 48.328786 79.180824 152.680052
2026-02-01 11.813660 15.812040 21.725802 31.744018 49.885074 85.713463 179.602407
2026-02-08 11.201635 15.174860 21.166480 31.582660 51.151750 91.966575 209.526862
2026-02-15 10.652766 14.588309 20.627905 31.379100 52.283267 98.224696 243.808786
2026-02-22 10.167938 14.063447 20.139085 31.196794 53.411933 104.801022 284.505622
2026-03-01 9.746472 13.620472 19.765599 31.215284 55.043577 113.387424 342.445574
2026-03-08 9.332652 13.163706 19.334240 31.080605 56.342399 121.660509 410.268064
2026-03-15 9.159926 13.080359 19.525204 32.156086 60.584056 140.064495 562.082794
2026-03-22 8.770636 12.618756 19.024340 31.806894 61.415631 148.541137 675.800878
2026-03-29 8.459804 12.267944 18.691301 31.758655 62.986040 160.271135 849.532109
2026-04-05 8.225910 12.031099 18.542457 32.072663 65.555473 176.985862 1141.773357
2026-04-12 7.926014 11.665542 18.132911 31.786075 66.480486 188.065147 1439.950157
2026-04-19 7.664958 11.352543 17.798608 31.627022 67.738099 201.398462 1886.380550
2026-04-26 7.438062 11.086632 17.533892 31.593561 69.361089 217.557288 2599.213350
2026-05-03 7.210479 10.808148 17.227074 31.432822 70.588947 232.895938 3615.102596
2026-05-10 6.992465 10.536165 16.915694 31.230405 71.663234 248.478153 5182.319617